Decision models
Forecasting, optimization, and uncertainty analysis built around the decisions that actually need to be made.
Explore this work →IFELIF / HOW DECISIONS GET MADE
Turn complex systems
into clear decisions.
I help teams build statistical models, analytical software, and evidence they can use to make difficult decisions.
MODELS YOU CAN EXPLAIN
✦INTERFACES PEOPLE USE
✦DECISIONS THAT HOLD UP
HOW I HELP
From raw signals to useful systems.
I work across modeling and product design, so the analysis is useful to both the people building it and the people who depend on it.
Analytical products
Data interfaces that let technical and non-technical teams examine the same problem and decide what to do.
Explore this work →Research & insight
Research that begins with the decision, documents the method, and states what the evidence supports.
Explore this work →ELSE + LAB
Make the analysis inspectable.
Articles in else pair an argument with the working model behind it: documented assumptions, interactive charts, and small experiments you can run in your browser.
Explore else →ELSE PUBLISHED
01A Non-Detection Is Not Zero
What silence from a sensor actually tells us about methane emissions.
The Number Is Not Enough
Why credible inference needs the measurement likelihood behind the reported value.
How Wrong Can an Average Be?
What total variation and sampling discrepancy tell us about integration error.
ARACHNEα
IN DEVELOPMENT
Meet Arachne.
Arachne is being developed to estimate annual methane emissions from surveys, monitors, and operational records while keeping assumptions and uncertainty visible.
- Traceable assumptions
- Scenario-based estimation
- Made for real-world operations
Work with me
Have a difficult question?
Let’s make it tractable.
I take on a limited number of consulting engagements. Email me with the problem you are working on and the decision it needs to support.
Start a conversation →