What Is a Marked Episode Process?
Generate complete facility-year histories from episode onsets, durations, and rates, then integrate those hidden paths into exact annual totals.
In developmentWhat else?
Technical field notes, mathematical musings, and interactive models about data, decisions, uncertainty, and the ideas that do not fit neatly anywhere else.
01 / START HERE
A Non-Detection Is Not Zero
A silent survey is probabilistic evidence, not an emissions value. Inspect how survey conditions and repeated passes change what remains plausible.
ARACHNE METHODS / SERIES INDEX
The Arachne methods series
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The Number Is Not Enough
Compare technology-specific POD and quantification models, then see why a threshold and an accuracy claim cannot turn a vendor report into defensible evidence.
Read note →Before You Make It Fast, Make It Right
Follow Arachne through inference over an unknown number of hidden episodes, then edit a variable-dimension state yourself.
In developmentFrequency, Duration, and the Information You Cannot Recover
Why sparse observations can reveal occupancy while leaving event frequency and duration fundamentally entangled.
In developmentOne Model, Every Asset: From Facilities to Pipelines and Landfills
Why the same probabilistic accounting framework scales naturally across assets and up to a company-wide estimate.
In developmentWhich Sensor Teaches Us More?
How likelihoods and expected information gain let us compare monitoring technologies under the same emissions hypotheses and operating conditions.
In developmentUsing Arachne: From Evidence to an Annual Emissions Estimate
A worked example that starts with facility records and sensor models, then follows the calculation through posterior annual mass and sensitivity checks.
In developmentBetween the Measurements
How repairs, removals, operating-state changes, metered releases, and other records enter Arachne, including which capabilities are still planned.
In developmentMATHEMATICAL MUSINGS